Alternative investment fund founded and based in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

We expect a neutral opening of the European market amid mixed trading from -1% to + 1.2% of futures on world stock indices. Investors are preparing for re-election in the US Congress, and judging by the poll of representatives of the legislative power, Democrats may get more seats in the Lower House, while they will not be able to take the Senate. Some polls conducted by US television channels indicate a decrease in the number of seats for Democrats in these elections. Other polls promise them victory, because the Democratic Party has spent more money on election work than Republicans. This situation leads to uncertainty for investors, and they are biding their time. Therefore, they almost did not pay attention on Monday to good data on business activity in the US non-manufacturing industry. On the other hand, American investors are confident that the Senate will remain for the Republicans, and this will keep the easing of the financial part of the Dodd-Frank law, as well as the law on tax reform. After the elections, a significant event will be the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, from which they do not expect an increase in the rate, but the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 3.2%, and the dollar index moves sideways. If the election results give a surprise, for example, the Democrats will take the Senate, then we can expect increased sanctions against Russia according to previously adopted laws, which the Republicans did not fully use.

Following Wednesday, the US stock indices SP500 and Nasdaq fell by 3% and 4.4%, respectively. Fallen stock prices of leading US technology companies: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (-3.43%), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) (-5.91%), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (-5.35%), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) (-5.18%), etc. due to poor reporting for the III quarter. In terms of earnings per share (EPS) of AT & T (NYSE: T) companies (forecast 3.52 / fact 2.93), Microsoft (forecast 4.32 / fact 3.88) plus other companies from this sector gave poor profit forecasts for the future is due to the slowing demand for chips in the world, which Texas Instruments (-8.24%) associates with the trade war between the US and China. The yield on US 10-year bonds fell by 6 bp up to 3.1%. Therefore, today the Asian indices fell to 1,1-3,6%. We expect a decline in the Russian market at the opening of trading. However, December futures for the MSCI EM index is trading neutral. Against the background of investors' disappointment in the profits and forecasts of American companies, we do not exclude that there may be capital inflows to emerging markets with good macro statistics and investment grade credit ratings, for example, Russia, Mexico. On Thursday, US investors will focus on Amazon and Alphabet (ex. Google) reports. If the results are weak, the US market will continue to fall. Probably, this event will even eclipse the conference based on the ECB meeting, which can be given deadlines after the end of the QE program.

We expect a neutral opening of the Russian market against the background of growth, by 1.5% of Asian stock indices, but with a decrease in the nearest futures contract for the MSCI EM index by 0.8%. The US SP500 rose on Tuesday by 1.5% due to good company reporting and industrial production data for September, which showed an increase of 0.3% against expectations of 0.2%. And now, at the auction on Wednesday, the index will move sideways in anticipation of the publication of the September FOMC US Federal Reserve protocols, which will help investors determine the prospect of an increase in the top interest rate level in November-December of this year. This is the main event on Wednesday. Against this background, the yield of US Treasury bonds froze in a neutral position, at the level of 3.16%. At the same time Russia reduced its investments in these securities in August due to possible sanctions. Until the end of this week, the ruble will pay attention to the behavior of the Argentine peso and the South Korean won because of the meeting of the Central Banks of these countries, but an increase in interest rates is not expected.

We expect a decline in the Russian market at the opening of trading amid a decline from 0.4% to 1.5% of futures on world stock indices. So, investors respond to the call of participants of the IMF forum, which took place at the weekend, to be ready for greater instability in the future, bearing in mind the consequences of a trade war that is already slowing global economic growth, and is expected to weaken by 2020. Summarizing the results of the forum, its participants are waiting for a reduction in tensions in trade relations between the United States and China. At the same time, the reporting season in the US market started with the weak positive results of leading American banks, so the US stock indexes moved sideways on Friday. We think that investors expect similar results from other US companies that will report this week, for example, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and others, and when confirming weak data, the American the market may adjust down due to an overvaluation of the shares of leading companies. Against this background, emerging markets may receive an influx of speculative capital, but on Wednesday the minutes of the September FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be published, which will help to better understand the arguments of Committee members for an increase in interest rates, as well as help determine the outlook for the end of the year, what plays in favor of the dollar. Also in his favor plays a positive expectation of data on retail sales on Monday.

We expect a neutral opening of European markets amid mixed dynamics of trading in futures for world stock indices. The yield on US Treasury bonds, for example, 10-year-olds, remains at 3.23% since the end of last week due to a decrease in the unemployment rate to 3.7% and thanks to the statement by the Head of the Fed about the continuation of the monetary policy normalization next year. In turn, such a high yield will help attract to auctions for public debt (with which, before October 15, the US Treasury plans to collect $ 50 billion in net position) more investors. Against this background, the demand for the dollar in the world market will increase. In addition, the yield on US government debt has already surpassed the gross dividend yield on the SP500 index by 1.82% at the current moment. Also, the demand for American securities will be supported by the outflow of capital from Eurozone government bonds, primarily Italian, whose profitability rose to 3.5% over 10 years due to problems with the question of increasing the budget deficit to GDP to 2.4% in 2019, when in 2017 it was 2.3%.

We expect a neutral opening of trading on the Russian market amid mixed dynamics of trading in futures for world stock indices. The ruble has a chance to weaken due to the positive outlook from ADP for new work places in the United States. If the forecast is confirmed, then official statistics, which will be published on Friday, will wait for good results, which will strengthen the dollar. However, on Thursday and Friday, the central banks of Mexico and India will publish the interest rates. The market is waiting for their increase, as a response to the increase in the rate of the US Federal Reserve. This will play in favor of the currencies of the EM sector, including the ruble. Today will begin the forum on energy in Russia, where the key players of OPEC will be. Investors are interested in the position on the prolongation of the OPEC “plus” deal, and any statements can push oil prices up, which will support the ruble.

We expect a slight rise in the Russian market at the opening of trading, which, by inertia, will regain the growth of oil prices by 2.4% to $ 85 per barrel on Monday. Commodity traders buy oil because of the projected deficit, which is based on the introduction of US sanctions against the export of Iranian oil from November, as well as problems with a lack of production and import of oil in the United States. As an example, Kuwait has reduced the volume of oil imports to the United States with 300 thousand barrels per day to 92 thousand barrels per day from the beginning of 2018, and now does refused due to unfavorable price of $ 79 per barrel, when in Asia can be sold at a higher price $ 80 a barrel. At the same time, the Russian market will be under pressure due to a 1.2% drop in the MSCI EM index, which in turn responded to the fall of the Chinese non-material Hang Seng index by 2% as a result of a warning by the Chinese authorities to the US military courts that those are close to the sovereign territory of China. Significant US statistics will not follow today, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the National Association of Business and Economics. Therefore, the weak results of purchasing managers in manufacturing, namely, due to the reduction in the number of new orders that were published yesterday, will fade into the background, and the dollar may receive support.

The FOMC Fed raised the upper interest rate by 25 bp to 2.25%, as investors had expected. In addition, most members of the Committee are waiting for another rate increase until the end of 2018, i.e. up to 2.5% against the background of a strong economic growth and a no less strong labor market when inflation is around 2%. At the same time, the Fed chief hinted that the financial regulator would not take into account the political factor: criticism of the US President for the rate increase due to the increase in payments on the state debt against the background of the budget deficit. The committee has heard widespread criticism of US-based US trade duties on imported goods, but so far does not see their impact on incoming macro statistics. From this it follows that while there is economic growth, the interest rate will be raised every quarter. This will lead to increased capital outflows from emerging markets, but the central banks of these countries will start raising rates. For example, today the Bank of Indonesia will announce the rate, and next week - Mexico and India. In anticipation of their decision, the volatility of the currencies of the EM sector will increase. Also on Thursday will release the quarterly US GDP on an annualized basis. A neutral result of 4.2% is expected, but there are predictions of a slight increase, this will play in favor of the dollar. On Friday publish the personal consumption expenditures, one of the key indicators of the Fed in the calculation of future interest rates. Expected neutral result in monthly dynamics and weak reduction in the annual dynamics, slightly cool the rising dollar. Against this background, the ruble will be under pressure. In his favor is only the payment of income tax on Friday.

We expect a neutral opening of the Russian market amid rising futures for global stock indices in the range from 0.1% to 1.35%. However, from September 24, the United States will introduce new duties of 10% on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion with the possibility of increasing the rate to 25% in the case of a similar response from China. Against this background, the high-tech sector in the SP500 fell more than the others by the SP500 index, while the index itself finished trading Monday with a decrease of 0.5% to 2888 points. This is due to the fact that most high-tech companies import components from abroad, where there is cheap labor, for example, in Asian countries. Therefore, on Tuesday morning, the Asian stock indices of the EM sector are moving in different directions. Expansion of trade war, where prices for nickel, aluminum and to a lesser extent for copper are declining due to investors' concerns about a slowdown in global demand. The yield of US government bonds has increased, which promises high demand for the placement of new bills, notes, 10-year bonds this week.

USA

A major event of the week unfolded in USA. The Federal Reserve Chair addressed the Senate claiming that the interest rate might be raised in the coming months. Her arguments to toughen credit conditions are good domestic economic data and achievement of most targets for key macroeconomic indicators. Besides, the Fed Chair stressed that keeping low rates for too long might adversely affect all they had done to boost the economic growth. In our opinion, it might spur capital outflow from emerging markets, as LIBOR 3M rates have been growing for more than 6 consecutive months hitting 1.03%-1.05%. It tempts investors over to investments in USD denominated assets. Raising the Fed rate ceiling is up ahead, of course. For example, in March. It raises barriers for immediate purchase of assets or USD funding, as raising the rate means growing yield of debt instruments but yields of 2.3% to 2.5% might tempt institutional investors even now. Historical UST 10 Yield Curve (issue maturing on 02/15/27)

ECB

ECB meeting minutes released this January confirm intention of monetary authorities to keep on boosting the monetary policy, as key macroeconomic indicators have not been achieved, which intention provoked traders into buying sovereign bonds of EU member countries and yields declined as little as few basis points. There have also been buys on EM debt markets.